Stock market plunges as recession alarm blares
An economic alarm bell has sounded in the US, sending warning signs of a possible recession ahead.
Yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted early Wednesday, a market phenomenon that shows investors want more in return for short-term government bonds than they do for long-term bonds.
It’s the first time that has happened since the Great Recession and it can be an indication that investors have lost faith in the soundness of the US economy.
What appeared to be a slight thaw in trade relations between the US and China that had sent markets sharply higher Tuesday was quickly forgotten Wednesday.
At the opening bell, the Dow tumbled more than 400 points.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.622 percent, falling below the yield of a 2-year, which was 1.634 percent. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.
An inversion like the one taking place Wednesday has preceded the last nine recessions dating back to 1955, though it doesn’t always mean recession is imminent.
And when a recession might hit, if it does, is tricky. Months or even years have passed after an inversion takes place, and before economists can connect the two.
Still, the inversion sent a ripple through US markets Wednesday.
The Dow fell 1.6 percent and the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent. The Nasdaq fell further.
The cost of gold, considered a safe haven for investors, traded well above $1,500 per ounce and continued to climb.
With fears of a global economic slowdown growing even sharper, the price of crude, already down 10 percent in the past three months, fell more than 3 percent.
Longer-term yields have been falling due to anxiety that President Donald Trump’s trade war could derail the global economy.
Other parts of the curve had already inverted, beginning late last year. But economists in each instance have cautioned not to make too much of it.
The latest inversion, however, is considered more of a tripwire.
Uncertainty over what comes next in the trade war could unnerve businesses and consumers enough that they begin cutting spending. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity in the US.
That could start a vicious cycle where companies cut back on hiring, which feeds through to more damage for the economy.
On Wednesday, Macy’s became the first major retailer to report quarterly earnings.
The company fell vastly short of expectations and cut its profit expectations for the year.
The retail sector and the banking sector were among the hardest hit in US markets early Wednesday.
Wall Street snapped a two-day losing streak — and sent shares of Apple soaring — after the US said it will delay imposing tariffs on certain items that were supposed to take effect on Sept. 1.
Cellphones, laptops, and some apparel items will not be affected by the 10 percent tariffs President Trump planned to impose next month, the United States Trade Representative announced Tuesday, citing “health, safety, national security and other factors” as reasons for the delay. Those items will be subjected to the tariffs starting Dec. 15.
The delay was enough to propel stocks — which had been hampered over the last few weeks on trade worries — upward.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 500 points — or 1.9 percent — after the USTR’s announcement before retreating slightly. Apple was the biggest gainer on the blue-chip index, soaring 4.8 percent.
Other gainers in Tuesday’s session were Dow and Caterpillar, both up more than 4 percent. Retailers and toy-makers, which rely on goods and services from China, also got a boost, with Mattel jumping 9 percent, while Kohl’s and Walmart popped 5.8 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up, gaining 1.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.
Trade tensions ramped up between the two countries earlier this month after Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 10 percent on $300 billion in Chinese goods.
But analysts eyed Tuesday’s sudden rally cautiously.
“I’m not sure this takes us out of the woods,” Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities, told The Post.
“It’s a very strong rally in the context of a market that has been trending lower,” he said.
On Monday, the Dow fell 391.00 points — or 1.5 percent — as anti-democracy protests in Hong Kong dimmed hopes that the US will be able to reach a trade truce with China. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said the market now assumes a 13 percent chance of a trade agreement — down from 80 percent in April.